Are We Doomed to Flood During a Deluge?

As the fall sets in, Santa Barbara’s desiccated landscape anxiously awaits winter rains. But will the rains arrive? Will the winter bring dry conditions, or another lineup of intense storms?

Will it be a drought year, or a deluge year? As I learned when I was elected to the Goleta Water District Board in 2014, either option is more likely than an average rain year — Santa Barbara has always experienced highly variable precipitation, swinging between drought and flooding. Recently, this trend has only intensified. Climate change is causing Santa Barbara to experience more intense rain, especially during atmospheric rivers, due to a warmer atmosphere that holds more moisture. This increased moisture leads to heavier rainfall and more powerful storms. What we are experiencing now is a heightened pattern of extremes. 

Rain predictions are largely driven by ocean temperatures and weather patterns known as El Niño or La Niña. For the past few years, ocean temperatures have been unusually high (El Niño), though models suggest a potential La Niña cooling trend this year. (1) Frankly, the idea of anything cooling on this planet right now feels far-fetched. Temperature records fell faster this year than the Canary Island Date Palms at Refugio Beach. 

While El Niño and La Niña significantly impact weather patterns, their influence on rainfall is less predictable than often assumed. For example, despite a weak La Niña in 2016-2017, California, including Santa Barbara County, experienced several strong atmospheric rivers that brought above-average rainfall (26.26” at Potrero Station) and helped ease drought conditions. So, even if La Niña develops this year, heavy rain and flooding are still possible.

Conversely, El Niño doesn’t always guarantee a wet year. In 2015-2016, despite predictions of a strong El Niño, storms bypassed us, with Potrero Station receiving just 14.49 inches of rain. While Northern California got the storms—and Santa Barbara enjoyed great surf — local water supplies didn’t benefit. We relied on state water from the north to sustain Lake Cachuma that year.

Who even remembers the drought days now? After two years of heavy rainfall, water restrictions are distant memories. Remember plastic tubs in the kitchen sink? Catching every drop to keep the roses alive? Or the water trucks winding up Montecito’s hills at dawn, sustaining lush, manicured estates while the rest of the county withered? 

Californians live in a land of extremes, and let’s be honest, we tolerate it because most of the time, it’s pretty idyllic. But when those atmospheric rivers roll in, the impact is hard to predict. Our region’s tricky hydrology — with steep hillsides, a legacy of landslides, heavy clay soils, and widespread pavement — creates fast runoff and frequent flooding. Even with advances in green building and stricter stormwater regulations, our infrastructure remains vulnerable.

Holistic solutions exist: We need to act like terrestrial beavers, creating “soil sponges” to slow, sink, and spread stormwater, reducing runoff. A stormwater park on the flood-prone Eastside could reduce runoff, clean water, and provide habitat and open space. The challenge lies in making tough land-use decisions for such initiatives.
Water-wise gardens have cut water demand, but landscaping can offer more benefits: reducing the heat-island effect with trees, supporting pollinators, filtering pollutants, improving soil water retention, and aiding groundwater recharge. Aquifers are our most effective natural water storage system for drinking water, and infiltration is essential for replenishing these underground reserves. While Santa Barbara City lacks a significant aquifer, areas like Goleta has geology conducive to this process.

The next step, in my view, lies in genuine collaboration. Addressing complex water issues like flooding, drought, water supply, and stormwater management demands a holistic approach. However, the agencies overseeing these areas often aren’t compelled to collaborate.

For meaningful progress, agencies need to collaborate more effectively. Imagine Public Works, which handles flooding and excess water, teaming up with local water agencies responsible for our water supply. By analyzing maps of flood-prone areas and groundwater recharge zones, they could find opportunities for stormwater gardens. This collaboration should also include groups like the City Creeks division, which works to prevent water pollution. 

Santa Barbara County may have land that could serve multiple purposes — reduce flooding, recharge groundwater, filter pollutants, minimize runoff, and provide habitat and open space that’s cooled by trees. By pooling expertise and resources, agencies could develop integrated solutions that tackle multiple challenges at once. And, expanding water-wise garden incentives to include measures that reduce polluted runoff and curb flooding would further support this climate-friendly strategy. It’s a comprehensive approach that requires agencies to work holistically to address our environmental challenges.

Los Angeles offers an inspiring model with the Accelerate LA project (https://fieldkit.acceleratela.org), which provides valuable resources for agencies and communities to implement similar strategies (2). Encouraging collaboration between land use, public works, and water management will strengthen Santa Barbara’s resilience, and help us prepare for the next deluge or drought.

(1)  The NWS Climate Prediction Center forecasts a higher likelihood of La Niña for September to November, which typically signals a drier and warmer winter ahead.

(2)  This brief video shows how we can transform our landscapes: https://vimeo.com/939365412.