Misty air, humming insects, rustling leaves, and chirping birds — it’s all part of the charm of Goleta’s Butterfly Grove. But this year, there’s one glaring omission: the butterflies.
Last year at this time, the Ellwood Mesa forest was teeming with monarchs, with more than 15,000 counted. By mid-December, that number had climbed to more than 26,000. This year, however, the count is far less impressive — since October, the highest two-week count is 34. On Tuesday, it was just four. For hikers hoping to spot even one monarch, the odds aren’t in their favor.
Monarch counts are conducted biweekly during the overwintering season, the period when monarchs migrate to California’s coast in search of warmer weather. December typically marks peak monarch activity, but recent trends show a severe decline.
According to the city of Goleta’s butterfly website, the western monarch population has plummeted by 95 percent since the 1980s. Increasing temperatures, drought, harsher storms, and wildfires are all likely culprits for the dramatic decline.
Ellwood Mesa, in particular, has seen a sharper drop than other overwintering sites. “Overwintering monarch populations have declined more in Ellwood than in other known aggregation sites. We believe this is due to degrading forest habitat,” Goleta’s website said. Up at Monterey’s Pacific Grove butterfly site, the numbers have been the low hundreds.
Hiking along the otherwise peaceful trails at Ellwood, the sound of a drill whirring or a truck beeping can be heard. With the main trail closed off for habitat protection projects, like eucalyptus tree replacements, temporary irrigation systems, and trail repairs, the area sounds almost like a construction site.
But Emma Pelton, senior conservation biologist at the Xerces Society for Invertebrate Conservation, said some preliminary evidence shows that monarchs aren’t deterred by loud noises at established overwintering zones, such as the Ellwood Mesa. Pelton believes it is “highly unlikely” that noise pollution is keeping these butterflies away from the area.
Monarch counts are low across all monarch overwintering sites, with this year’s population count “shaping up to be the second worst year ever recorded across overwintering sites,” according to Pelton.
The more probable reason for the widespread single-digit population counts is climate change, the Xerces Society’s website indicates. With unprecedented heat and drought across the Western U.S., it’s just too warm for the golden gliders.
With the Ellwood grove a butterfly ghost town, hikers looking to catch a glimpse of the monarchs may be out of luck this year. Ongoing efforts by the City of Goleta and various conservation organizations continue to improve the overwintering site in the hope that the monarchs survive to return during the next migratory season.
4•1•1 Help the Ellwood restoration effort on Saturday, and plant trees for monarch habitat with the City of Goleta and the Bucket Brigade. Meet up at the Ellwood Mesa Beach Parking Lot (across from Ellwood School) on Saturday, December 7 at 9 a.m. or at 1 p.m.
