‘Beaches Are in Trouble’: Sea-Level Rise Coming for Santa Barbara County Coastline

As sea levels rise, nothing along the coastline is safe. Not even parking lots. Or bathrooms.

Eventually, the rising tide will consume more than just sand. Two professors from Cal State University Channel Islands (CSUCI) dug deeper, asking, where, what, and how soon?

By the end of the century — projecting a sea-level rise of three feet — 40 percent of Santa Barbara County’s beach access sites (i.e., where the public can enjoy the beach) will be underwater, according to the recent study by CSUCI professors Kiersten Patsch and Dan Reineman. 

No matter what we do about climate change, Reineman said, the heat introduced into the atmosphere and oceans has already set off a domino effect and “sea level will continue to rise.” 

In the next 30 years, the state anticipates one-and-a-half to two feet of sea-level rise will occur. Every foot of sea-level rise will drown an estimated 100 beach access sites in California. “Beaches are in trouble; some less than others, some later than others, but they’re all in trouble,” Reineman added.

For the study, which was published in the journal Shore & Beach, Reineman and Patsch put together a detailed, interactive map that allows users to see what the ocean will eat first — including everything from accessways like staircases and trails to amenities like parking spaces, bathrooms, and picnic tables. 

While some coastal access sites are currently threatened by sea-level rise, others will not be affected for at least a few decades to come. In Isla Vista, for example, some staircases leading down the bluffs already disappear into the water during high tide. But many places along the Santa Barbara waterfront still have about two to six feet of leeway before they start to drown.  

Santa Barbara and Ventura, along with San Diego County, are also predicted to lose the most in terms of beach parking when compared to other coastal communities. 

“When we go to the beach, there are a few things that we need,” Reineman said. “First, we need to actually access the sand — the beach itself; next, we often rely on bathrooms, or picnic tables, or barbecues to make our visit pleasant; and last, we need a place to park.”

Reineman and Patsch developed the interactive map, with the help of CSUCI student researchers, to “better understand not just what was happening to the beaches themselves, but how our ability to enjoy those beaches was going to change,” Reineman said.

They hope this new data will help inform the public, as well as spotlight the vulnerable areas where policymakers can prioritize decisions on beach management. Each access site on the map also lists the congressional district that it is in, “so people know who to contact to help protect and preserve their favorite beaches,” Patsch explained.

Patsch, who specializes in coastal dynamics, said that the decisions we make about how to manage our coastlines will have a “big impact on whether beaches survive.”

“We can improve their chances by ensuring that as sea level rises, beaches have space to adapt by shifting inland,” she added. “Hard, permanent coastal armoring, like sea walls, deny beaches this chance. Natural features like dunes and natural processes like erosion help this chance.”

While the county has taken steps to measure and prepare for the impact of future sea-level rise, such as assessing coastal vulnerability and hazards, it seems that real, countywide policy changes to proactively respond to these threats have lagged or hit road bumps.

However, multiple plans to protect the shoreline are in progress across the Central Coast. The County Flood Control District announced a program earlier this year, supported by the Beach Erosion Authority for Clean Oceans and Nourishment, to explore reusing sediment from local debris basins to rebuild eroding shorelines. Also, in recent years, the cities of Santa Barbara and Carpinteria have kick-started projects focused on their own coastal defense and adaptation. And for statewide action, UC Santa Barbara is developing a California Beach Resiliency Plan from the ground up. 

For Patsch and Reineman, this recent study of the impacts of sea-level rise on beach access and amenities was just Part I in a trilogy. Part II will update a 2016 study describing inequities in beach access for California’s diverse population; and Part III will examine the environmental justice impacts of sea-level rise on beach access. 

While private property and erosion were not the focus of this study, others show that losses to property due to coastal flooding by the end of the century could destroy around $100 billion worth of property, put critical infrastructure at risk, and displace hundreds of thousands of people, including large numbers of low-income people and communities of color. 

And in terms of actual sand, researchers have predicted that 67 percent of beaches along the Southern California coast may completely erode by 2100 with three feet of sea-level rise. 

Patsch and Reineman are now tackling Part II and III of their study simultaneously, with plans to publish the entire study sometime around the end of the year.

To read the coastal access study in its entirety, see Patsch and Reineman’s sea-level rise study.

To see how sea level rise is affecting beach access in a specific community, see the sea-level rise map.