SpaceX Plans to Launch 90 Rockets from Vandenberg Space Force Base by 2026

SpaceX plans to launch 90 rockets into space from Vandenberg Space Force Base by 2026, tripling the amount of sendoffs rattling nearby coastal communities. At the May 10 California Coastal Commission meeting, concerns were raised over wildlife endangerment, sonic booms, the impacts of launches on coastal access, and the power these federal allotments are giving to a single company. 

SpaceX, founded by billionaire Elon Musk, is contracted by the Department of Defense (DoD) to conduct U.S. Space Force operations, and in recent hearings with the California Coastal Commission, the company has been requesting increases in their annual launches and an agreement on federal consistency. However, the commission has been reluctant. 

“We are not anti-science, anti-research, or anti-weather balloons. We want to work collaboratively with the Department of Defense to achieve our collective mission, but we do have a statutory responsibility to protect this beautiful coast,” said Commissioner Kristina Kunkel. “I would encourage substantial increases in additional attention during this exponential increase in launches.”

Commissioner Kunkel was among many in the previous meeting in April who moved to postpone the decision to allow increased launches due to the vagueness surrounding launch numbers, sonic boom impacts, debris, and wildlife endangerment. 

At the most recent hearing, Colonel Bryan Titus, vice commander of Space Launch Delta 30, was joined by two Space Force environmentalists to help the commission understand the DoD’s plans. 

The presentation outlined for the first time the plan to increase launches from 36 in 2023 to over 120 by 2026. In response to the previous month’s concerns, it included plans to create a focus group and mitigate damages to protected species such as sea otters, bats, western snowy plovers, and California least terns and red-legged frogs. 

Federal agencies monitor the effects of the lift-offs and have found that some of the animals react by flushing — or fleeing their nests and homes — though they often return within minutes, according to Space Force officials.

Environmental groups argue that the exponential increase in launches could result in permanent changes to animal behavior not yet recorded. 

Ana Citrin, with the Gaviota Coast Conservancy, found the Space Force approach “inconsistent” with other approaches on the coast. 

“There should be a mechanism to pause launch activity in the event a decline in baseline species populations or other significant impacts are documented,” she said. “It is important to have the results of this new monitoring before approving additional launch activity.”

Another concern in the previous meeting was weather balloon debris. With each launch, five to eight weather balloons are sent into the atmosphere prior to launches to ensure safe takeoff. Thirty percent of those balloons fall in the ocean, and although the balloons are 100 percent biodegradable, the sensor suite holds nine-volt batteries that pollute the waters. 

Colonel Titus assured the commission that the Space Force is testing alternatives that produce less debris or eliminate the need for weather balloons altogether. In the meantime, the DoD is committed to donating $10 per pound to debris cleanup organizations, he added.

Inconsistencies in the number of launches is a continuous concern among the commission. Last year, SpaceX breached their agreement to the commission that limited the number of launches to six, sending 28 rockets into space. More than 120 launches by 2026 means one launch every three days, and the permanent effects on wildlife, coastal access, and residential neighborhoods could increase tenfold. 

“Why are we considering 36 launches when the plan is to launch 50 this year?” asked Commissioner Kunkel. “Why are we considering 36 if they would immediately be out of compliance with that?” 

The DoD negotiates agreements with the commission, but can ultimately move ahead without its approval. Serious disapproval from the commission — which has been reluctant to grant federal consistency — would come through mediation or the courts.

Because SpaceX is a military contractor, federal officials argue that all launch operations at the base are “federal activities” even though only a quarter of SpaceX rockets are carrying payloads for the DoD. The other 75 percent are for private company benefits. 

Commissioner Justin Cummings raised concerns over concentrating so much power into one company, and a single individual. 

“What controls does the government have once these payloads have entered space?” he asked.

He pointed to the instance in September 2022, when Ukraine was preparing to launch an attack on Russia and Musk decided to suspend satellite internet service from Starlink, a subsidiary of SpaceX. 

“If the idea is that we’re supporting these permits on the side that we’re promoting national defense, and then a single company is able to dismantle our allies during armed conflict — that really doesn’t align,” Commissioner Cummings said. “I suspect that would violate our strategies around national defense.”

Commissioner Kunkel, Wilson, Cummings, and Caryl Hart agreed that a Coastal Development Permit granted to SpaceX would be more appropriate, and holds precedent at Vandenberg.

“There are plenty of actions that the government contracts out to private entities, and those entities don’t receive benefits reserved for the federal government,” said Commissioner Kunkel. 

Commissioners echoed their feelings from April arguing that SpaceX, not U.S. military officials, should be making the company’s case in front of the commission. Commissioner Cummings said it was “ridiculous” for SpaceX not to appear to answer questions, especially when they have repeatedly requested their presence. 

“We will have significant issues in passing federal consistency if we do not have the private entity here in the room,” said Commissioner Hart. “That is going to continue to be a problem.” 

The U.S. Space Force will return to the California Coastal Commission June 12 for another hearing.