Comments by sbhobo
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Posted on May 9 at 10:34 p.m.
Talking about the bright side......While no wild fire is a good one to those who lose homes, cars, animals, or otherwise suffer, looking at this fire from a community perspective, it is a good fire. { I wouldn't say that if the state/county/city/voters would support and implement proscribed burning after the rains when intentionally set fires will burn controllably. } While last year's Gap fire (no homes lost) shows old fuels can have slow enough fires we can suppress without lost of property, the most likely outcome for the fuel between the Gap and Tea fires (which hasn't burned since 1990 or 1964), is something like last year's Tea Fire (200 homes lost in the first 4 hours), the 1990 Paint fire (600 homes lost in the first 3 hours), or the circa 1977 Sycamore fire (350? homes in 4 hours). This is because: a) Santa Barbara and Noleta have many more homes in the foothills than Goleta, b) many of Goleta's most vulnerable homes are protected by large orchards or range lands. Furthermore: c) historically most of the burned acreage occurs during the large fires, and d) statistically the large fires are so because they started and spread during worse fire weather than the Gap or Jesusita Fires had (much worse sundowner winds -- hotter, faster, lasting longer, and directed more into the city), and e) with lower fuel moisture than the Jesusita Fire. Last point -- The Jesusita fire didn't have to compete with any other major fires so we received all the crews we could use. In summary, the odds are great that if this fire wasn't happening now, some or all of this acreage would of fed one or more fires that would of raged into the city and suburbs, burning more than a 1000 homes. That's no consolation to those who experienced loss now (My sincere condolences.), but it is to the rest of us who now have much lower risk for the next ten years.
Posted on May 9 at 8:20 p.m.
Re the first comment asking about the fire burning over the top of the Santa Ynez mountains: The chances are very low because 1) there is a fair firebreak up their to backfire from, 2) there are lots of brush engine and hand crews on hand to jump on most spot fires that might start, 3) there's little other fire in socal so we have good air support to knock down a slop-over , 4) fire weather is forecast to be pretty good the next few days, 5) any slop-over would be burning down hill in vegetation with higher moisture content and lower solar heating because of the northern exposure. But never count mother nature out when she's only down.
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Posted on May 8 at 2:25 a.m.
-- CURRENT UPDATE -- 2am: No glow visible from Cathedral Oaks & Kellogg. No fire is big enough to show thru whatever smoke there is in between.
-- At 1 am I could see no fire nor even a glow from either the Patterson SB on-ramp or Turnpike SB offramp. Trees and hills do block both vantage points of were the fire must be, but lack of glow means nothing was big at that time. Wind there and also at Kellogg and C.O is very mild -- 2 to 5 mph.
-- Around midnight there were a few good flareups (bright glows) NE of CO and Kellogg. That bearing crosses Old SM Pass Rd where it just starts to climb. But I really really really doubt the fire was there. I'm sure is was from where that bearing crosses SM Pass (SR 154)... that first big curve to the right just up from the San Antonio Creek Rd tee. I heard from a firefigher around 10pm that the fire was at, or had crossed 154 near that tee intersection.
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Posted on May 8 at 2:07 a.m.
-- CURRENT UPDATE -- 2am: No glow at from CO & Kellogg. No fire is big enough to get thru whatever smoke there is in between.
-- At 1 am I could see no fire nor even a glow from either the Patterson SB on-ramp or Turnpike SB offramp. Trees and hills do block both vantage points of were the fire must be, but lack of glow means nothing was big at that time. Wind there and also at Kellogg and C.O is very mild -- 2 to 5 mph.
-- Around midnight there were a few good flareups (bright glows) NE of CO and Kellogg. That bearing crosses Old SM Pass Rd where it just starts to climb. But I really really really doubt the fire was there. I'm sure is was from where that bearing crosses SM Pass (SR 154)... that first big curve to the right just up from the San Antonio Creek Rd tee. I heard from a firefigher around 10pm that the fire was at, or had crossed 154 near that tee.
On Mandatory Evacuation: North of Cathedral Oaks to Patterson
Posted on July 10 at 11:32 p.m.
Reply to Cavela re: "One question for Erika: it appears that your map shows the fire crossing Old San Marcos Road on the eastern side, is this correct or am I reading it wrong? "
I believe you are reading it wrong. The only area on her map that crosses OSMR is the mustard colored area that also crosses 154 and Painted Cave Rd. Click on this area and a popup will explain this is an evac warning area. The fire area is the purple region (bluish where overlays the green LPNF area, and taupe where overlays the LPNF and evac warning areas).
Posted on July 4 at 4:34 a.m.
From my roof top vantage point at Kellogg and CO Rd, I have a so-so view of the area north of Patterson from where it curves and crosses the E fork of San Jose Creek, to where it meets Cambridge.
From 1800 to 2100, the fire was burning moderately in chapperal as the east edge of the fire, pushed by NW->SE winds (judging from the smoke plume) moved from the W Fork of San Jose Ck to the E Fork drainage. Here at CO&K, we were feeling the on-shore flow of cool marine air.
2100 to 0000: We could now feel the sundowners, and our view of the flames became obscured. There were pretty mild most of the time, but one two ventures outside they were15 to 20 mph.
At 0130, the sundowners were gone, and by 0200 the wind plume was to the SW, giving us again a good view of the flames. While it's hard to tell in the dark, it seems to me:
a) the fire hasn't reached the homes at the top of Camino Manadero,
b) the fire progressed well along the ridge that runs NW/SE between the two forks of SJ Ck (above Camino Meleno?)
c) but there are some flames at such low elevation I wonder it's come down the W fork along Camino Rio Verde, or maybe it's just low on the flank of the ridge.
d) the west edge of the fire is still W of Old SMPass Rd. I can't see if it's crossed the E Fork.
Posted on July 3 at 12:56 p.m.
Ray, tx for the info and pushpins.
What is the timestamp for the fire perimiter you posted around 11:15 Thur am. You best "current estimate" or as of last night sometime?
At 0100h the bearing from the corner of Kellogg and C'Oaks to the very active SW corner of the fire was about 310 deg True -- consistent with your map. But judging from fire engine headlights, at the same time the fire was 15- to 300 yds above the cat road that follows that portion of your maps border. The western border of your map is consistent with my observation from SBA at 2300h last night. So by now, it may be closer to the Fairview line. Inciweb finally updated at 1230 pm, but still no map. I'm heading out for a look. I may stop by the S.O.
Posted on July 1 at 11:46 p.m.
Thank's SBI for being the first to report online. I'm checking in on this from a hotel lobby in Groton CT. InciWeb, LPNF, SBNP, KTMS nor KEYT websites have anything posted as of 30-min ago. We live by COaks & Kellogg so we're OK for now.
ex-LPNF seasonal firefighter
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Posted on May 9 at 11:25 p.m.
Ray, another great report, thanks.
On A Day of Change on the Front Lines