The Endangered Species Candidate

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Tom Campbell would make a great candidate for governor, if only someone would appoint him the nominee of the Republican Party. Brainy, personable, and pragmatic, Campbell is by far the most experienced GOP contender in both politics and policy. He has one enormous strike against him, however: He’s a moderate who won’t pretend he’s anything else, at a time when Republican centrists are a vanishing breed.

Last week, Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania’s longtime Republican U.S. Senator, ignited a political furor when he announced he was switching parties. The moderate Specter’s sudden decision to become a Democrat, motivated by a fierce GOP primary challenge from right-winger Pat Toomey, drew loud and predictable cries of “good riddance” from the Rush Limbaugh/Sean Hannity conservative thug corner and set off a round of soul-searching among less ideologically pure Republicans, who fear they’re becoming less a party than a cult.

Tom Campbell

“I’m sorry Senator Specter left the Republican Party,” Campbell told me. “The more moderates leave the party, obviously, the less centrist it becomes. Most Americans, and Californians, seek solutions in the center. So the Republican label becomes less attractive.”

The 56-year-old Campbell is a fiscal conservative who is moderate to liberal on social issues like abortion, gay rights, and gun control, stands that have made him anathema for many Republican primary voters, who tend to be the most conservative of the conservatives. With a University of Chicago PhD in economics and a law degree from Harvard, Campbell has had a distinguished career in politics and academia, but has tried and failed twice to win a top-of-the-ticket office in California.

A former state senator and ex-congressmember who served five nonconsecutive House terms representing swing districts in the Bay Area, Campbell enters the 2010 race for governor trailing frontrunner and political novice Meg Whitman, former CEO of eBay, in the polls; in the money primary, which matters even more at this early stage of the campaign, he runs far behind Whitman and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, both of whom made personal fortunes in Silicon Valley, and say they are prepared to spend what it takes to win.

Campbell got schooled in the bare-knuckles politics of GOP primaries in 1992, when he ran for the retiring Alan Cranston’s open seat. He put up a fight against the eventual nominees, conservative L.A. TV commentator Bruce Herschensohn, but lost out when the late Rep. Sonny Bono (you know, the guy in the sheepskin vest singing “I Got You Babe” with Cher) jumped in as a novelty act — some said at the instigation of GOP right-wingers — and pulled enough votes from Campbell to be decisive. The Republican conundrum of nominating candidates too conservative to win statewide was on full display in the fall, as the very liberal Barbara Boxer beat Herschensohn to win a very unlikely Senate seat.

In 2000, Campbell infuriated many GOP conservatives, who were fighting to maintain control of the House, when he gave up a safe congressional seat to run in a weak primary field for the right to get beaten out by incumbent Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein; although he did capture the party’s nomination, Feinstein rode an overwhelming financial advantage to bury him by 19 points in the general.

In the governor’s race, Campbell’s liberal views on social issues may hurt him less than previously, since both Whitman and Poizner are pro-choice. What may be more damaging, however, is his support for Proposition 1A, the centerpiece of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s budget plan on the May 19 special election ballot, which both Whitman and Poizner oppose. Campbell supports the measure because it would put in place spending controls and a new, rainy-day reserve fund; but many conservatives are up in the arms about 1A, because it also extends a $16 billion set of tax increases for two years. Campbell’s stance on the proposition, coupled with his earlier service as the governor’s top financial officer, won’t sit well with the right wing.

But Campbell, who is nothing if not optimistic, thinks that GOP primary voters may be more pragmatic than ideological this year. Because 2010 is a reapportionment year, the next governor will preside over the redrawing of congressional districts; Campbell thinks he might prevail in the primary as the most electable statewide candidate over his two inexperienced rivals.

“The new governor will preside over the Congressional redistricting — that is a huge issue to all Republicans,” he said, noting that former governor Pete Wilson, another GOP moderate, united the party on that issue in 1990. “I think the great majority of California Republicans are still very much social moderates and fiscal conservatives.” We shall see.

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