Capitol Letters
Thursday, July 2, 2009
One glance at the madness in Sacramento, where Arnold Schwarzenegger is leading a political parade to plunge California into the abyss, is enough to make every sane person wonder why anyone would want to be governor.
A year out from the 2010 primary elections, however, a quintet of eager applicants for the job already is merrily on task, raising millions, decrying the mess, and explaining why everything will be better on his or her watch. As the contestants moved into the first turn with the first deadline for fundraising reports this week, here’s a handicappers’ guide to the race.
Capitol Letters
The Never-Minds: Most of the political window shoppers whose intentions were unknown earlier have packed it in.
For Democrats, much uncertainty lifted when L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa withdrew last week; once seen as a strong player, hizzoner failed his own political gut check after a string of stumbles, including an underwhelming reelection, a massive city deficit, and a couple of what-was-he-thinking affairs with TV reporters.
His withdrawal followed a recent statement of disinterest in running by Dianne Feinstein, acknowledging what everyone else already knew: It makes no sense to leave the comfort of an influential U.S. Senate seat for an impossible job amid the, um, delights of Sacramento life.
A few loyal fans are still puffing on well-cooled embers of speculation on behalf of Santa Barbara favorite Jack O’Connell, but he hasn’t exactly provided a world-class exhibition of fire-in-the-belly.
On the Republican side, Ventura County Supervisor Peter Foy still is playing Hamlet. Unknown statewide, Foy’s pro-life stance and right-wing positions on other social issues contrast with what he calls the “squishy” views of the rest of the GOP field, giving him entrée to the party’s sizeable cultural-conservative bloc.
The Democratic Duo: A generational mano-a-mano matchup pits Attorney General and former everything Jerry Brown, 71, against Gavin Newsom, the 41-year-old San Francisco mayor and gay-marriage guru. A new statewide survey, taken by Sacramento pollster Jim Moore after Villaraigosa’s withdrawal, gives Brown a 46-26 percent lead; he runs ahead of Newsom everywhere but the Bay Area.
Newsom’s high-powered handlers spin the race as a reprise of the 2008 Democratic presidential primary, casting their guy as the Obama-like avatar of new politics with Brown in the role of Hillary, the remaindered establishment Democrat. The problem with trying to portray Jerry Brown as the status quo is that he’s, well, Jerry Brown — unpredictable, impossible to categorize, and the smartest guy in the class.
Brown does his best to avoid saying anything substantive about the state’s fiscal mess. Instead he’s positioning himself as an “apostle of common sense” (always with the religious metaphors), a world-weary political warrior who can cut through the bushwa to slash the Gordian knot of state government and its structural double binds.
Newsom is more specific in articulating proposed progressive solutions on a host of issues. He was an early endorser of a plan for a constitutional convention, backs a move to dump the two-thirds budget vote requirement, and cautiously hints at the need to amend Proposition 13.
At this point, though, it’s Brown’s race to lose, at least until Newsom can expand his limited core of support among younger voters.
Mega-Bucks Republicans: Meg Whitman, the billionaire ex-CEO of eBay, is seeking to dominate the GOP Money Primary with a multimillion-dollar contribution report. As a practical matter, she doesn’t need the money; as a political matter, attracting statewide donations helps her strategically, by showing she’s a viable candidate and not just another dilettante business executive. Whitman swiftly became the favorite of the Washington Republican establishment, earning high-profile endorsements from the likes of John McCain and House wunderkind Representative Eric Cantor, as well as an influential if gushy cover profile from the conservative Weekly Standard.
Her effort to court conservatives is being fiercely challenged by Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, whose own Silicon Valley fortune gives him the table stakes to compete against her, and whose aggressive campaign team relentlessly attacks Whitman’s business acumen and lack of political experience.
Running to the left of the duo is former Silicon Valley Congressmember Tom Campbell, the only candidate on either side to offer a thoughtful and comprehensive plan for the intractable problems of the budget and economy. The candidate of free media, Campbell will hustle to every editorial board and talk radio gig he can find because he won’t have the bucks to match his well-heeled rivals.
Today’s 2010 conventional wisdom: Brown vs. Whitman.
Politics 101: Conventional wisdom is always wrong.