Did Prop. 8 Affect the Jackson-Strickland Race?

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Afew weeks before Election Day, Hannah-Beth Jackson was patiently awaiting the signal to enter the lineup in Moorpark’s “Country Days Parade,” when she suddenly saw something that made her blood run cold.

“I was sitting on the fire truck, waiting for our turn in the parade, when all of a sudden, 500 people walked by with their children, holding ‘Yes on 8’ signs,” Jackson recalled. “It surprised me that they were so mobilized. Prop. 8 brought out a lot of people who would not otherwise have voted.”

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Jackson’s comments came during an interview on Thanksgiving, as she conceded defeat to Tony Strickland in the photo-finish 19th State Senate District race. There’s an almost irresistible temptation, in analyzing an election decided by 912 votes among 415,000 cast, to try to ferret out the single most important, absolutely crucial, “if only” factor that made the difference — irresistible but, ultimately, futile. In this case, however, Jackson’s focus on her opposition to Proposition 8, in contrast to her Republican rival’s support for the gay marriage ban, is backed up by a fair amount of hard evidence.

A major post-election, statewide survey, released last night, December 3, by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), suggests that people who oppose gay marriage were substantially more motivated to vote than those on the other side of the issue. PPIC interviews with more than 2,000 voters confirmed Election Day exit polls that found evangelical Christians and John McCain supporters (85 percent) overwhelmingly approved Prop. 8, while a solid majority of nonwhites (57 percent of Latinos, Asians, and blacks combined) also voted for it. In probing the attitudes behind the votes more deeply, the poll also revealed a greater intensity among anti-same-sex marriage voters than among its supporters. Among other findings:

• California voters interviewed after Election Day evenly split when asked their position on gay marriage: 47 percent in favor and 48 percent opposed, with the rest unsure. However, the statewide vote on Prop. 8 (in which a “yes” vote meant “no” on gay marriage) was 52 percent in favor and 48 percent against. This means that the “Yes on 8” campaign significantly expanded their base of voters while the anti-8 side did not.

• Three-fourths (74 percent) of those who voted for Prop. 8 said they considered the outcome of the gay marriage vote to be “very important,” compared to just 59 percent of those who voted against it who described the measure that way.

• More than eight in 10 voters (81 percent) said they followed news reports about ballot measures at least fairly closely and nearly two-thirds — 63 percent — said they were most interested in Prop. 8, far more interest than expressed for any other measure.

“Proposition 8 had highly motivated supporters and a well-funded campaign, and in the end, they prevailed." — Mark Baldassare, PPIC survey director

Bottom line: While Californians overall are “closely divided on the issue of same-sex marriage,” according to survey director Mark Baldassare, “Proposition 8 had highly motivated supporters and a well-funded campaign, and in the end, they prevailed.”

Closer to home, it’s instructive to note that in both Santa Barbara and Ventura counties, more votes were cast on Prop. 8 than for Barack Obama and John McCain combined. More significantly, “Yes on 8” polled far more votes than Republican McCain in each county (30,829 more in Ventura and 14,533 more in Santa Barbara), an indication that the Prop. 8 campaign attracted many voters to the polls specifically to cast ballots on the gay marriage ban. (Prop. 8 won 53-47 percent in Ventura and lost 53.5-46.5 in Santa Barbara, the only Southern California county against the initiative.)

“The ‘Yes on 8’ campaign was below the radar for a long time,” Jackson said. “But the churches, [especially] in Simi Valley, revived it in the last two or three weeks. It took a lot of people by surprise.”

I’M JUST SAYIN’: Gov. Terminator for months has tossed manly hissy fits because fellow Republicans in the Legislature have deeply dug in their heels by refusing to consider new taxes to balance the out-of-whack state budget. Then a potential Jackson victory gives the independent-minded governor, who loves to rail against mindless partisanship, the chance to come within one vote of the two-thirds majority in the State Senate needed for a tax increase. So, a week before the election, he of course decided to endorse … Tony Strickland … one of the hardest-core, hardest-line anti-tax GOPers in California, instead of staying neutral in the 19th District race. Strange bedfellows, indeed.

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